The early predictions for the 2026 Best Actor Oscar highlight a mix of established stars, returning veterans, and long-overdue performers. Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis notes that Venice, Telluride, and Cannes festivals will heavily influence the race as awards season unfolds.
Jesse Plemons tops early predictions for his role in Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia. Dwayne Johnson draws attention for his transformational performance in Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine, set to debut at Venice and Telluride. Cannes best actor winner Wagner Moura also remains a strong contender for Kleber Mendonça Filho’s political thriller The Secret Agent.
Oscar Isaac is generating buzz for his dual roles in Frankenstein and Julian Schnabel’s The Hand of Dante. Other actors to watch include Michael B. Jordan, who hopes for his first Oscar nomination in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, and previous Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis, coming out of retirement for Anemone.
Veteran actors like Russell Crowe (Nuremberg) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), along with rising stars like Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), are also expected to compete for Academy recognition.
Early Predicted Nominees – Best Actor 2026:
- Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Focus Features)
- Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (A24)
- Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (Neon)
- Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein (Netflix)
- Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24)
