As the 2026 awards season approaches, early predictions for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar are generating buzz. Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis highlights a mix of established stars and rising talent who could earn their first nominations.
Adam Sandler is drawing attention for his role in Noah Baumbach’s Netflix dramedy Jay Kelly, in which he plays a Hollywood manager opposite George Clooney. Though best known for comedy, Sandler has previously earned acclaim for Punch-Drunk Love, Uncut Gems, and Hustle, the last earning him a SAG nomination.
Sanding his spot is Stellan Skarsgård, a veteran Swedish actor praised for his performance in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which premiered at Cannes. Other actors generating early buzz include Jacob Elordi as Frankenstein in Guillermo del Toro’s adaptation, Paul Mescal as William Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, and breakout talent Aidan Delbis in Yórgos Lánthimos’ Bugonia.
Additional contenders include Idris Elba (A House of Dynamite), Michael Stuhlbarg (After the Hunt), and actors from Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, such as Delroy Lindo, Jack O’Connell, and Miles Caton. Academy voters may also be swayed by strong transformative performances in genre films, such as horror and musicals.
With Venice and Telluride festivals about to kick off, the Oscar race remains fluid, and predictions are likely to evolve as critics and audiences weigh in.
Early Predicted Nominees – Best Supporting Actor 2026:
- Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (Neon)
- Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
- Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix)
- Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)
- Aidan Delbis – Bugonia (Focus Features)
