Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to be the biggest video game release in history, but some industry experts are questioning just how big it can realistically get.
A recent prediction from venture capital firm Konvoy suggests that GTA 6 could make $7.6 billion within its first two months. However, many believe this number is impossible to reach due to sales history, platform limitations, and market size.
GTA 6 Will Break Records, But Not That Many
There’s little doubt that GTA 6 will set records when it launches next year. Its predecessor, GTA 5, made $1 billion in just three days after release in 2013, making it the most successful entertainment launch at the time.
Given the gaming industry’s growth and the immense popularity of the GTA series, experts agree GTA 6 will likely outperform GTA 5. However, Konvoy’s estimate of $7.6 billion in just 60 days is raising eyebrows.
Why the $7.6 Billion Prediction Doesn’t Add Up
At an expected $80 price point, GTA 6 would need to sell around 95 million copies in two months to reach $7.6 billion. For comparison, it took GTA 5 five years to reach 100 million sales.
To put it in perspective, selling 95 million copies in two months would be equal to about 20% of all Call of Duty games ever sold—combined—and nearly half of all GTA games sold over the past 12 years.
Platform Limits Create Additional Barriers
Another major factor is that GTA 6 will only be available on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S at launch. There will be no PC version, no support for older consoles like PS4 or Xbox One, and no release on Nintendo platforms.
Currently, there are about 77.8 million PS5s and an estimated 30-35 million Xbox Series consoles in the market. For GTA 6 to hit Konvoy’s predicted sales numbers, nearly 90% of all next-generation console owners would need to buy the game immediately, which is highly unlikely.
A More Realistic Forecast
Konvoy also predicted that GTA 6 could make $2 billion in its first month, which some experts believe is possible. This would match or slightly exceed the game’s reported $2 billion development budget, although that figure has not been officially confirmed.
GTA 6 will likely break many records and could surpass GTA 5’s sales milestones faster due to the growth of digital game downloads and global demand. However, experts say estimates like $7.6 billion in two months ignore important facts about the market.
