A new report from Clarivate shows a major shift in global scientific collaboration, with China rising rapidly as the United States loses influence. The analysis, published in Nature, examined 15 million research papers and 500 million citations produced between 1999 and 2024.
According to the report, China has become one of the central players in international research. Its scientific output grew from 150,000 papers in 2010 to more than 800,000 in 2024. China surpassed the U.S. in publication volume in 2020. Its citation impact has also increased steadily and is now close to U.S. levels.
China’s growth is supported by large investments in research and education. The country spent ¥3.3 trillion ($460 billion) on R&D in 2024 and continues to produce more than a million STEM graduates each year. Collaboration between universities and major companies has also strengthened China’s research output.
The report shows that China now collaborates more widely across the world. Co-authored papers with Europe have tripled over the past decade, while partnerships with Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa have also grown. China’s Belt and Road initiatives have helped build research ties in developing regions.
In contrast, U.S. scientific influence has declined over the past 15 years. The study links this drop to reduced federal R&D funding, tighter visa policies, and political disputes around research topics such as climate science and biotechnology. The U.S. also experienced disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and overall publication numbers have not fully recovered.
Collaborations between China and the U.S. have fallen sharply since 2018 due to export controls and increased scrutiny of sensitive technologies. Joint work now makes up only half of the previous level. However, indirect cooperation still occurs through researchers in countries such as Singapore and the UK.
Experts warn that increasing barriers to collaboration may slow global scientific progress. The report notes that research networks are becoming less centred on the U.S., with new hubs emerging in regions including Japan, Brazil and South Africa. China is projected to lead in high-impact research by 2030 if current trends continue.
