Health experts have warned that another global pandemic on the scale of Covid-19—or worse—could occur within our lifetime, with one epidemiologist describing the potential event as “The Big One.”
Michael T. Osterholm, a leading epidemiologist, said a future outbreak could be far deadlier than coronavirus, comparing it to “a biological bomb going off.” His warning follows new research estimating that there is a 78% chance another major pandemic will happen during a person’s lifetime.
The findings, presented in a Ted-ED video, were based on historical data and computer models simulating hundreds of thousands of possible pandemics. Researchers considered factors such as population growth, international travel, and medical preparedness.
They found that the annual probability of a Covid-level pandemic is between 2.5% and 3.3%, meaning that although the yearly risk is low, the likelihood grows significantly over decades. Even the most conservative estimates, based on historical data such as the 1918 Spanish flu, placed the risk at around 31% within a lifetime.
Osterholm and other experts warn that millions of viruses still remain undiscovered. An estimated 1.7 million viruses infect mammals and birds, with around 40% of them having the potential to jump to humans.
Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said the next pandemic could already be starting without detection. “We won’t even know it’s begun until it’s too late,” he cautioned.
The Covid-19 pandemic has already claimed over seven million lives worldwide and caused severe social and economic disruption. Scientists say future preparedness will depend on stronger disease surveillance, faster vaccine development, and improved public health systems.
While the risk of another pandemic remains uncertain, experts agree that global readiness will determine how devastating “The Big One” might become.
