Markets are off to a hot start in 2026, with many indices near all-time highs. Goldman Sachs macro trader Bobby Molavi says the year will revolve around the United States, driven by policy, corporate buybacks, retail flows, and macro data.
Early shocks include the US removal of Maduro in Venezuela, sparking global geopolitical responses.
Meanwhile, Asia, especially Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, is benefiting from diversification trades as investors look beyond the US. China’s SHCOMP index is on its longest winning streak since 1993, and GDP growth is projected at 4.8% in 2026.
Molavi highlights a “running hot” market: weaker dollar, rising equities, gold, silver, and copper. Retail investors remain influential, driving roughly 30% of daily US equity volume and shaping trends alongside corporate buybacks.
Tech remains a focus, but diversification within the Mag7 (Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Meta) has balanced the market. AI and mega-cap growth themes continue, though valuations and interest rate dynamics may add risk.
Global markets outside the US also show strong returns, with notable gains in Korea, China, Japan, Spain, and Italy. Commodities, precious metals, and infrastructure remain key hedges against debasement and uncertainty.
Molavi also flags upcoming mega-cap IPOs and unicorns as areas to watch. The combination of retail-driven flows, indexed investing, and high-profile tech launches will shape market trends and volatility in 2026.
Overall: US dominance, retail activity, and macro events will drive markets this year, but global opportunities remain strong as investors balance risk and growth.
