Trans-Pacific Shipping Costs Down 7%, But Tariffs May Disrupt Trade

Trans-Pacific shipping rates declined as Chinese factories slowed operations for the Lunar New Year.

• Asia-U.S. West Coast rates fell 7% to $4,938 per 40-foot container (FEU) last week.
• Asia-U.S. East Coast rates dropped 1% to $6,656 per FEU.

Asia’s factories and logistics networks shut down for 15 days during the holiday, reducing shipping demand.

However, rates remain more than double their 2019 levels due to ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions.

Tariff Fears May Cause Import Surge

President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Feb. 1.

• Shippers may rush to import goods before the tariffs take effect.
• This could temporarily push ocean freight volumes and prices higher.
• If tariffs happen, demand could drop in later months.

Trump has also suggested using tariffs for non-trade-related issues, such as a recent dispute with Colombia over deportations.

Red Sea Crisis Keeps Rates High

The Red Sea conflict continues to disrupt global shipping, forcing companies to take longer, costlier routes.

• Freight prices from Asia to North Europe fell 12% to $4,122 per FEU.
• Asia-Mediterranean rates dropped 4% to $5,075 per FEU.
• Most shipping companies are avoiding the Red Sea, despite a temporary ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war.

Only French carrier CMA CGM continues to use the Suez Canal for its Shanghai-Beirut service.

New Shipping Alliances Could Impact Rates

In February, major ocean carriers will launch new alliances to improve efficiency.

• Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s “Gemini” alliance promises 90% schedule reliability.
• Global schedule reliability in December was only 53.8%.
• The average delay for late vessels dropped to 5.28 days, the lowest since July 2024.

These changes could stabilize shipping prices, but Trump’s tariffs may create uncertainty in global trade.