A mathematical model created in 1960 once claimed to predict the exact date the world would end, placing it on Friday, 13 November 2026. The calculation was developed by researchers Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot at the University of Illinois.
The scientists studied global population growth over the previous 2,000 years and found it was increasing at an accelerating rate. At the time, the world’s population had nearly doubled from 1.6 billion in 1900 to around three billion in 1960, despite two world wars.
Using this trend, the researchers created a formula suggesting population growth would eventually become unsustainable. Their model showed population figures rising towards infinity by November 2026, which they described dramatically as a form of “doomsday”.
They argued that while technology had so far supported human survival, continued growth would lead people to struggle in a finite environment. The researchers believed that something would eventually halt this rapid growth, though they did not know what form it would take.
More than six decades later, the prediction has not held up. While the global population has risen to about 8.2 billion, the rate of growth has slowed significantly, largely because birth rates have fallen in many countries.
The United Nations now expects the world population to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion before beginning to decline. This shift has made fears of a population-driven apocalypse in 2026 highly unlikely.
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