Online prediction markets placed millions of dollars in bets on this year’s Oscar nominations, and while many forecasts proved accurate, several high-profile surprises exposed their limits when nominations were announced on Thursday.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi correctly predicted major contenders like One Battle After Another and Sinners would dominate top categories. Sinners went on to break records with 16 nominations, the most ever for a single film.
However, some categories produced unexpected outcomes. In Best Supporting Actress, neither platform predicted Elle Fanning’s nomination for Sentimental Value. Polymarket bettors instead backed Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good, while Kalshi users favored Odessa A’zion for Marty Supreme. Both actresses missed out.
Prediction markets also stumbled in the Best Picture race. Bettors widely expected It Was Just An Accident to earn a nomination, but it was left out. Instead, F1 secured a surprise Best Picture nod, despite receiving little support from bettors ahead of the announcement.
In other major categories, markets performed strongly. Both platforms correctly forecast all five Best Director and Best Actor nominees. Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael B. Jordan were among the safest picks, each receiving very high odds before nominations were revealed.
Results were mixed in Best Actress. Polymarket accurately predicted all five nominees, but Kalshi missed Kate Hudson’s nomination for Song Sung Blue while backing Chase Infiniti, who did not make the list.
The accuracy of prediction markets has drawn growing attention in recent years. Polymarket has partnered with the Golden Globes, and betting activity around major awards continues to increase. Still, this year’s Oscar surprises show that even data-driven forecasts can miss key decisions made by Academy voters.
The 98th Academy Awards will be held on March 15, with comedian Conan O’Brien returning as host.
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