China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed that the country’s demographic crisis worsened in 2025. For the fourth consecutive year, the population shrank as birth rates dropped to levels not seen since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.
In 2025, total births fell to 7.92 million, a 17% decline from 9.54 million in 2024. The birth rate hit 5.63 per 1,000 people—the lowest in more than seven decades—while deaths rose to 11.31 million, the highest mortality rate since 1968. This produced a net population decline of 3.39 million, leaving mainland China with 1.405 billion people.
Demographers cite a “perfect storm” of factors behind the collapse. The Year of the Snake, traditionally considered less favorable for childbirth, coincided with a sharp drop in marriages—6.1 million in 2024, down 20% from the previous year.
Economic pressures also play a role. High youth unemployment, a lingering property crisis, and soaring education costs continue to discourage young couples from having children. Meanwhile, China’s aging population now comprises 23% of citizens (323 million), straining the shrinking workforce.
Beijing has tried to reverse the trend with pro-natalist policies, but results remain limited. In July 2025, the government offered childcare subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child annually for the first three years. Tax exemptions for matchmaking services and kindergartens were introduced, while condoms and contraceptives controversially lost tax-exempt status in January 2026.
Marriage reforms were also implemented in May 2025, allowing couples to register anywhere in the country to reduce administrative barriers for migrant workers. Despite these measures, experts say reversing the demographic decline will be difficult without broader social and economic changes.
Globally, India remains the world’s most populous nation, having overtaken China in 2023. While China’s economy still hit its 5% growth target in 2025, analysts warn that a shrinking consumer base and aging workforce could challenge long-term growth by 2030.
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