The countdown is on for the first blockbuster of 2025. Disney and Marvel Studios‘ Captain America: Brave New World is tracking for a stellar opening of $86 million to $95 million over the three-day Presidents’ Day weekend.
Including Monday, the four-day haul is expected to cross $100 million, signaling a strong start for the franchise’s latest installment.
A Grounded Return to the Franchise
Directed and co-written by Julius Onah, Brave New World picks up after the events of Disney+’s The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. The series was a hit for the streaming platform, and Marvel is banking on its success to fuel excitement for Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson stepping into the role of Captain America.
This installment is being compared to the critically acclaimed Captain America: Winter Soldier (2014), which opened to $95 million in its first three days. The new film aims to blend grounded storytelling with the high stakes Marvel fans expect.
Audience and Awareness
Tracking service Quorum shows Brave New World leading in audience awareness among February releases, scoring 58 points—well ahead of Universal’s Wolf Man (44), Lionsgate’s Flight Risk (37), and StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru (36). The film is particularly strong with men, but women under 35 are also showing significant interest.
Notably, the film has a high “would pay to see in theaters” score of 67%, outpacing other upcoming titles like Wolf Man (57%) and Paddington in Peru (45%).
Presidents’ Day Weekend Competition
Marvel Studios has historically dominated Presidents’ Day weekend. Black Panther (2018) holds the record with a massive $242.1 million four-day debut, followed by Deadpool ($152.1 million) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($120.3 million). While Brave New World isn’t expected to match those heights, it’s positioned to solidify Marvel’s grip on the holiday box office.
Marvel’s Winning Streak
Quorum’s track record for accurate projections boosts confidence in Brave New World’s potential. The service correctly predicted the $200 million+ opening for Deadpool & Wolverine, which rival trackers initially underestimated.
With strong awareness, audience interest, and the legacy of the Captain America franchise, Brave New World is poised for a successful debut.
Marvel’s ability to blend streaming and theatrical storytelling continues to pay dividends, and this film’s opening weekend could set the tone for the studio’s 2025 slate.
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